A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
